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Peter Thiel makes Amazon his top stock: what he bought next is more revealing

Peter Thiel makes Amazon his top stock: what he bought next is more revealing
Devesh Kumar
Aug 17, 2026, 02:29 AM

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Amazon (AMZN)

Buy AMZN. Thiel’s biggest holding plus AWS growth (37% YoY) and a 2026 capex jump to ~$220B signals the market is underpricing the next wave of AI cloud demand. The thesis: Amazon is the cleanest way to own hyperscaler AI infrastructure spend, with AWS scaling faster than the rest of the stack.

Key Risk: AWS growth slows or capex doesn’t translate into durable profit, forcing margins down and killing the “spend now, earn later” payoff.

Vistra / Utilities basket (VST + AEP/DTE/FirstEnergy/CMS)

Buy VST and add AEP/DTE/FirstEnergy/CMS. Thiel’s portfolio is ~72% power/infrastructure names, pointing to a power bottleneck trade: data centers need firm capacity, and existing generators/utilities can monetize scarcity and long-term supply deals as AI demand surges.

Key Risk: Regulators or new generation incentives break scarcity economics (more supply, lower power prices), compressing earnings despite higher data-center demand.

  • Amazon is Thiel Macro’s largest disclosed US equity holding at $118 million.
  • About 72% of the disclosed portfolio is tied to energy and power companies.
  • Utilities and generators suggest a broader bet on AI’s growing power needs.

Peter Thiel’s macro fund has returned to US-listed equities with Amazon as its largest disclosed holding, but the rest of the portfolio points to a bigger wager on infrastructure powering artificial intelligence.

Thiel Macro reported $418.7 million of 13F holdings at the end of June after disclosing no holdings at the end of December 2025 or March 2026.

Amazon accounted for almost $118 million, or 28.2% of the portfolio.

The filing also showed positions in Vista Energy, Vistra, American Electric Power, DTE Energy, FirstEnergy, CMS Energy and X-Energy.

Together, those energy and power-related holdings represented about 72% of disclosed value.

Amazon gives Thiel direct exposure to AI spending

Amazon offers the most obvious route into the AI infrastructure boom.

AWS revenue rose 37% year on year to $42.2 billion in the second quarter, its fastest growth in 18 quarters.

Amazon also raised planned 2026 capital expenditure to about $220 billion as it races to add cloud and AI capacity.

Morningstar senior equity analyst Dan Romanoff said following the results that “the surging demand spans both traditional and AI workloads,” arguing that the strength supports Amazon’s enormous investment programme.

The spending could rise further, as Deutsche Bank analyst Benjamin Black expects Amazon’s capital expenditure to approach $300 billion in 2027, according to MarketWatch.

Amazon has said AWS expansion requires spending ahead of demand on land, power, buildings, chips, servers and networking equipment.

The portfolio points at AI’s power bottleneck

After Amazon, the biggest position was Vista Energy at $75.9 million, followed by Vistra at $59.1 million and American Electric Power at $42.2 million. DTE, FirstEnergy, CMS Energy and X-Energy rounded out the portfolio.

Not every holding is a direct AI bet. Vista, for example, is an oil and gas producer focused on Vaca Muerta shale formation.

But the concentration across utilities, power generators and energy producers makes the infrastructure theme difficult to ignore.

T Rowe Price’s Dom Rizzo told MarketWatch that hyperscaler capital expenditure could reach $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion in 2027.

He believes companies including Amazon are approaching an acceleration in spending because returns on deployed AI capital remain attractive.

Power is a growing constraint.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Melius Research analyst James West sees an advantage for existing generators because expanding operating plants can be cheaper and quicker than constructing new facilities.

He said major data-centre supply agreements could emerge “any day now.”

Also read- This 2026 trade is quietly beating AI stocks: the rally may have further to run

The power trade comes with risks

That interpretation requires caution, as Thiel has not publicly described the portfolio as an AI-energy strategy, and a 13F reveals holdings rather than the investment thesis behind them.

The power trade is becoming more complicated.

The Wall Street Journal reported that generators including Vistra have faced pressure as regulators in Texas and the PJM market respond to higher electricity costs and surging data-centre demand.

Measures encouraging new generation could eventually weaken the scarcity economics enjoyed by incumbent plants.

Amazon faces another version of that risk. Its AI opportunity is enormous, but management still must show that record infrastructure spending produces sufficient returns.